1.) San Francisco 49ers - Has an 8-8 tean ever won a division? I don't think the Niners will be 8-8, mind you, but this division really makes that seem possible. This is the make or break year for Alex Smith. This year we find out if Smith can lead a winning team or is, say, David Carr, who also happens to be on the team. Smith is better than people give him credit for. He really seemed to improve when they went to an almost exclusive shotgun offense (Smith never took a nsap from under center before the pros), and that didn't seem to hamper the running game much. He has some weapons too. We all know about Gore, Davis, and Crabtree, but the addition of Westbrook could help spell Gore and give Smith a fantastic safety blanket. Their line is starting two rookies, so their development is worth keeping an eye on. Their defense is among the best in the league, but m 49er sources (Dasser) tell me that their corners are cause for concern. Also, they've a great punter.
2.) St. Louis Rams - Quit shaking your head. This is only through process of elimination. I literally placed the other two teams here and changed my mind. Eventually what this came down to is that this is a quarterback league and the Rams are more solid at QB and HB than the other two teams. Bradford has first year star potential. They have a great running back, who will also be a help to Bradford in the passing game. The WRs, or lack thereoy me. The defense, under second year defensive coach Spags should be improved, though Head Coaches who were "geniuses" on one side of the ball as coordinators will generally be weak on that side of the ball: Dungy, Billick, Cranell, Gruden, the list goes on. Still, it has gone the other way too so...
3.) Arizona Cardinals - Derek Anderson at QB and Beenie Wells at HB do not add up to a great season. Throw in the fact that they lost their best defensive player (Dansby) and another of their top defensvie players (Rolle), this can get ugly. Larry can only do so much.
4.) Seattle Seahawks - Pete Carroll must be convinced that Charlie Witehurst is a franchise QB. Otherwise, it makes no sense to not have taken one in the draft. Hasslebeck is injury prone and past his prime. I don't trust their running game or their WRs. Carroll will be gone by the middle of the next season, whenever that turns out to be.
NFC South
1.) New Orleans Saints - They will come down to earth a bit this year. A great defensive scheme can only mask a lack of great defensive players up to a point. This team will have to outscore their opponents this season, which they're more than capable of doing. Though I see that as being their fatal flaw in the postseason.
2.) Atlanta Falcons - Bounce back year. Ryan's learned that the league's not as easy as it seemed during his rookie year, now he'll learn that, with his tools, it's not as hard as it seemed last season. Gonzalez will turn back the clock for one more year.
3.) Carolina Panthers - Matt Moore has serious Jeff George Phenomenon potential. Was surprisingly good at the end of last season, but now he's on tape and won't sneak up on people. Won't be surprised to see Clausen by Week 9.
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - What can you say? A coach and QB who've a ton to prove, and that's being optimistic. Let's just move on.
NFC North
1.) Minnesota Vikings - The dome helps keep Peterson and He Who Plays Like a Kid Out There fresh. Which will be key for the postseason because it's finally going to happen again: The Gunslinger is going to the Super Bowl. Great defense and timely offense will be successful. My biggest concern is Brad Childress's headset messing this up. What a matchup of coaches I'm calling for in February: Norv Turner vs. Brad Childress's headset. I must be losing my mind.
2.) Green Bay Packers - Great team on paper. Too bad the game isn't played on paper. Too badd, too, for the Packers that their games aren't mostly played indoors. Their offense is built for warm weather and I think the best chance they have of going to the Super Bowl is getting in the playoffs via Wild Card. That way they'd play January games (according to my picks) in either Minny, New Orleans, San Francisco, or...
3.) Chicago Bears - Jay Cutler is like most modern video games: Looks amazing, seems to have everything you'd want and yet... yet there's something missing. Something you'd find in almost all of the vintage games. You can't really name what it is, but it's there. The old games aren't as complex or realistic as the new ones, but they're still fun. You could hand me a SNES with NBA Jam T.E., Street Fighter II Turbo, Super Mario World, Super Metroud, A Link to the Past, and Donkey Kong Country and I'm set for months. Would you really be able to say that about any game that came out this year a decade and a half from now? But some of the newer games are legitimately great and maybe Cutler 2011 could be like that. I doubt it though. Did any of that make sense?
4.) Detroit Lions - Taking the step from pathetic to feisty young team who could upset anyone if they're not careful. A year away from being a team that hangs in the Wild Card race until Week 14.
NFC East
1.) Dallas Cowboys - Kind of gave this away in the Green Bay pick if you were reading carefully and even if you weren't, it wasn't all that subtle. They've a stud a QB, a three headed running attack that will kill fantasy seasons worldwide, and a fantastic set of WRs/TEs. Defense is a question mark despite the fact that Wade Phillips is a defensive minded coach (see?). However, when it came to the East, I had a tough time picking an order of finishing. I could see every team winning it and I could see each team finishing last. Dallas just seems the team that needs the most to go wrong to have a disastrous season.
One note on the Cowboys: they, along with a couple of other teams carry a kickoff specialist and on their active roster. This is in addition to a seperate FG kicker. The FG kicker is more accurate while the KOS has the bigger leg and routinely gets touchbacks on kickoffs. I love this idea and don't know why more teams don't use it. I mean, I'm sure that guys who can place kick a football a long way are not rarer than guys who can accurately place kick a football. Former soccer players definately could qualify as are former college kickers who didn't get drafted because their lack of accuracy. My point is, these guys shouldn't be hard to find. Most FG kickers are accurate under 45 yards, shaky under 55, and can't reach after that. This guy gives you at least a shot from 60 yards away. He might not make it, but he'll also eliminate any chance of a run back if this were the end of a half situation. Is the 45th man on the roster really that important that you can't spare him? In a league that preaches field position, it's shocking that most teams are content with kickoffs that come down at about the 10 yard line.
2.) Washington Redskins - A marked improvement at QB and a giant leap at head coach call for a big season out of the Skins. The Skins, though, would have been great 8 years ago with McNabb, Portis, Johnson, Santana Moss, Cooley, and Galloway. This does sound like a perfect Dan Snyder offense, but I think an angry McNabb will make up for it.
3.) New York Giants - I see both the Giants and Eagles finishing 7-9 so I was going to write it as a tie, but that seemed weak. So instead, I put it this way so at least it looks like the Eagles are finishing way behind. As for the Giants, their offensive line is shacky. It's the last hurrah, at best, for most of those guys. If they're able to hold up at all, the offense will be good. If the running game is good, then the offense will be great. The problem's on the other side of the ball. I know you shouldn't take too much from the preseason, but if in all four games it's clear that the other team is targetting the middle of the field at will with their WRs and TEs running the seams without any apparent coverage and the defense never seems to develop an answer for that then, well I think that's one time you could be worried about what you see in the preseason. I think tight ends can torch this defense for its lack of linebackers and the NFC East, with Celek, Witten, and Cooley should have no problem there.
4.) Philadelphia Eagles - Kevin Kolb might end up being really good, but he's going to have to have some growing pains along the way. I see him struggling in the beginning and then eventuakky figure it out. Just hope the Andy Reid takes some pressure off of him by allowing the running backs to actually carry the ball. Strange convept, I know, but strange enough that it just might work. Not a fan of the defense anymore.
Limerick of the Week
The Decision made LeBron easy to jeer
Big Ben probably should've laid off the beer
Tiger crashed his Caddy
Haynesworth became too fatty
But at long last opening kickoff is nearly here!
Peace
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